$20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

http://www.pcgs.com/prices/PriceGuid...+Gaudens+%2420


Seems that the BIG money is EXPLODING into the coins that are encapsulated - and verified - now.

IMVHO - my guess is that the FANANCIAL PANIC of 2008

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_diges...man100508.html

is finding GOLD and SILVER hard to find and is RUNNING toward the
NUMISMATIC INVESTMENT CERTIFIED for PRODUCT.

Supply and demand there is not ruled by paper prices that are actually just showing the PTB price wherein they have sold SHORT on futures and EFTS more than the entire physical now stored in the CRIMEX (read COMEX).

Funny how that works out - with the PTB and their scandals and coruptions.

:haha::haha:

:aetsch::aetsch:

:emotions16::emotions16:

:clap2::clap2:

:yes::yes:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Yeah I love how the physical market is saying sayonara to wall street.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Good post. The only thing our gov understands is paper. Corrupted to the core they are.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

I'm not sure whether "money is exploding into coins that are encapsulated" or not. It certainly is exploding into physical bullion.

What is the real market these days? Can't trust the futures prices...they bear less and less resemblance to reality. Ebay is closest; gold sovereigns there now go for about $230, which @$860 gold works out to 15% over spot.

But why pay more for encpsulation, etc.? You need the most gold for the buck.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

KING Solomon (the wisest man in the 2000 year old; 4000 years of history) did actually mention that we needed to have SEVEN baskets in investments:

Let me count the ways

1) Gold Coins

2) Silver Coins

3) Gold Stocks

4) Silver Stocks

5) Gold numismatics

6) Silver Numismatics

7) Silver Bars

#1 & #2 = 60%

#3 & #4 = 20%

#5 & #6 = 15%

#7 = 15% to trade into gold later - HOPEFULLY

:565::getdown:bancha:banana::565::getdown:bancha:b anana::565::getdown:bancha:banana:

All in fun and joy

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Common dated MS St. Gaudens coins should be:

MS63 equals 150% gold spot

MS64 equals 180% gold spot

MS65 equals 300% gold spot

So right now MS65s are underpriced for the future.

:shocked_ma::shocked_ma::shocked_ma:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Prices for pre-33 U.S. gold are pulling away from modern bullion. Sovereigns aren't far behind.

You've been ahead of the curve, TaxHaven. Well done.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

It is well known that the only "secret currency" of any value is gold bars. Everything else is garbage.:wink:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Don't forget Numi's are always the last to run. When you see a coin pimp on every corner selling them you'll know the bull is dead.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Very true budfox. After the bullion Gold price peaked in 1980 the numismatic gang took the "rare" coins on a 9 year bull run ending in 1989.

I think the same thing happens this time. When to make the switch? Beginning of next decade.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

ALL I mean ALL the common date Saints MS65 are KAPUT from Gainsville Coins.

I see that somebody "ain't plain stupid" as they would have made a great quick investment.

:565::565::565::565:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

What is the reasoning behind this?

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Those are limits what I would pay for the coins; therefore MS65s are UNDERVALUED today. Period.

The BOOK:

"The Secret Currency"

by Dr. steve Sjuggerud and David Hall - 2005

see:


PCGS grading service

http://www.pcgs.com/prices/

do a search on Sjuggerud

Good luck -

All is merely an opinion

HS

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Apmex has ALWAYS had AU or better...raw....$20 gaudens and liberty gold coins available....they are now out of AU....and effectively all ungraded St. Gaudens. They do have some extra fine raw $20 liberty coins....but not very many. Seems....folks have moved to the old stuff as the modern 1 oz gold coins are generally unavailable....except for 1 oz eagles at $100 over spot

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

I have bought from gainesvillecoins.com. I paid maybe $50 over spot for coins that now fetch $500 over spot....check it out.

http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/Spread.aspx


$20 Gaudens MS61 (common date) - $1,375.00


$20 Liberty MS61 (common date) - $1,400.00

WOWSERs!
:5_1_120:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

I agree. But it's the "I don't have to think about it because someone else surely did it for me already" mentality that dominates sheeple. The same thinking that got us to where we are today in finance, corporations, and political leadership.

Certified as to value (odds are by someone more knowledgeable than me, right?), and encapsulated so I KNOW it's the real deal and hasn't been messed with!

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

After they screwed over they want to have some (type) GUARANTEE - and for that you are thinking ahead - the future will be GUARANTEED AUTHENTICATED PROTECTED SLABBED coins with NUMBERS on THEM.

:signs14::signs14::signs14::signs14:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

I have had all of my raw pre-1933 coins graded....solely for authentication. It was not really economic to grade them for the sole purpose of trying to get a decent grade to increase the value.....but I wanted to know my coins were real - and this will also remove most doubts in the event I ever decide to sell any - buyers will know exactly what they are buying. Plus...I like storing them encapsulated....

I had one...come back as fake - for the record. I purchased it a few years ago in a group of coins from a reputable local coin dealer....although it was a $2.5 gold piece - so the monetary damage was minimal. It was a damn fine fake - I must say - I think it fooled the dealer also.

heck...I ended up with a number of cleaned coins....but I purchased them when they were trading for close to bullion value....so I assumed they may be cleaned when I purchased. Anacs slabs cleaned coins and notes them as such...so that is who I generally use.....along with ngc....I used to use PCGS....but my membership also but my membership expired and I was getting much better grades from the other two...obviously.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

I am advising all my clients that hold ms-65 and above to switch to circ pre 33 libs, saints, swiss and french francs and brit soverigns. The most bang for the buck is still the pre 33 foreign coins. In a depression your ms-66 st gaudens will lose most of their premium. Just look at the buy prices from last year to today, other than the increased value of the gold in the coin, most of the prices are down.
This is only my opinion!!!

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

I like your LOGIC on this OVERALL. If you have some MS65s and we get a GOOSE in the prices to the old highs - $3300 for MS65s - it might be a time to PLACE a few ON FEE BAY for say, $2,800 and see.

On the other side of the coin the AU prices are sticking close toward the so-called bullion PLUS value. Gold PLUS small premium for the grading and AU status.

I always say never EVER sell more than HALF of your "anything PMs" because
you NEVER WILL EVER know what the TOMORROW will bring, right?

:signs14::signs14::signs14::signs14:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

on my own spreadsheet tracking....I do not see that the MS65 gaudens and Liberty's have regained their prices the sold for earlier this year.....but the Ungraded and low grades seem to be at their highs...or more...from early 2008. Just my observation - not sure if it is right exactly.... I do know this....the large online dealers always had alot of availability of ungraded Gaudens and liberties...and now inventories are very low.

My 2cents

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

http://www.pcgs.com/prices/PriceGuid...+Gaudens+%2420

High for the YEAR!

note that the MS65s are almost selling 3 times the gold price as I mentioned above a few posts ago - and ALL THE WHILE gold is falling and SLABS march UPWARD and ONWARD - like they are in the BLACK MARKET!

:signs14:


PS early this year the MS65s were only about $1400 or so.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money.

Considering the stocks; bonds; mortgages; real estate; the recent fiat doubling worldwide; and other other types of PAPER scandals - did I mention the CRIMEX spot BALONEY charade?

Silver is $6.00 over spot on the black market; gold is $100 plus.:fight::fight::pissedoff::pissedoff:

:yes::yes:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Bump because http://www.jsmineset.com

says:

Posted: Apr 14 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: April 14, 2009 at 10:10 pm

Filed under: General Editorial

Dear CIGAs,

1. The action of the dollar versus gold has caused many of you some degree of confusion. The many violent FOREX turns is a product of the most successful hedge funds growing in size where only one market can accommodate their bloated bodies - the FOREX market. There can be no other explanation for the euro bouncing five cents as often as a Mexican jumping bean.

As the dollar moves towards and below .8200, the inverse relationship between the US dollar and Gold will begin to reassert itself.

History will write about this period now as the death of the dollar, marking 2009 as when it occurred.

Who, two years ago, would have anticipated open discussions at a "G" meeting about replacement of the dollar as the reserve currency? If you had suggested that on financial TV, you would be labelled a fool.

The Chinese are decelerating their US Treasury instrument purchases which would have impacted rates if it were not for the Fed monetizing the US Treasury by stepping in where the Chinese are stepping out. Up to this week all the intelligencia argued the Chinese could not and would not do that.

2. The argument rages on between monetary inflation resulting in price inflation and a depression business condition in which few can understand how hyperinflation can occur. The fact that this is how every hyperinflation has occurred seems to not make it past the spin and simple incapacity to understand.

We have had two periods of hyperinflation in the USA. The first was the collapse of the currency, the Continental. The second was the collapse of the currency, the Confederate dollar. The third is in process now.

3. The argument goes on concerning commodity values, but what is not in focus is that all major commodities are dollar denominated in their major markets. The dollar will underwrite the next major bull phase in commodities.

4. In times of hyperinflation, gold generally has a stable value since a government printing money has less control of its supply.


When:

Let�s give credit to the best of market timers, Martin Armstrong. He calls for the earliest gold turn on April 19th versus the latest point of turn in mid June. If it is June he sees this as indicative of $5000 gold.


How High:

Let�s turn over the baton to Alf fields at $6000.

I will stay with $1650 until we trade there in the not too distant future.


Hyperinflation
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In 1956, Phillip Cagan wrote The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation, generally regarded as the first serious study of hyperinflation and its effects. In it, he defined hyperinflation as a monthly inflation rate of at least 50%. International Accounting Standard 1 requires a presentation currency. IAS 21

In 1956, Phillip Cagan wrote The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation, generally regarded as the first serious study of hyperinflation and its effects. In it, he defined hyperinflation as a monthly inflation rate of at least 50%. International Accounting Standard 1 requires a presentation currency. IAS 21[provides for translations of foreign currencies into the presentation currency. IAS 29 establishes special accounting rules for use in hyperinflationary environments, and lists four factors which can trigger application of these rules:

1. The general population prefers to keep its wealth in non-monetary assets or in a relatively stable foreign currency. Amounts of local currency held are immediately invested to maintain purchasing power.

2. The general population regards monetary amounts not in terms of the local currency but in terms of a relatively stable foreign currency. Prices may be quoted in that foreign currency.

3. Sales and purchases on credit take place at prices that compensate for the expected loss of purchasing power during the credit period, even if the period is short.

4. Interest rates, wages and prices are linked to a price index and the cumulative inflation rate over three years approaches, or exceeds, 100%.

Root causes of hyperinflation

The main cause of hyperinflation is a massive and rapid increase in the amount of money, which is not supported by growth in the output of goods and services. This results in an imbalance between the supply and demand for the money (including currency and bank deposits), accompanied by a complete loss of confidence in the money, similar to a bank run.

Examples of hyperinflation

Angola

Angola went through its worst inflation from 1991 to 1995. In early 1991, the highest denomination was 50,000 kwanzas. By 1994, it was 500,000 kwanzas. In the 1995 currency reform, 1 kwanza reajustado was exchanged for 1,000 kwanzas. The highest denomination in 1995 was 5,000,000 kwanzas reajustados. In the 1999 currency reform, 1 new kwanza was exchanged for 1,000,000 kwanzas reajustados. The overall impact of hyperinflation: 1 new kwanza = 1,000,000,000 pre 1991 kwanzas.

Argentina

Argentina went through steady inflation from 1975 to 1991. At the beginning of 1975, the highest denomination was 1,000 pesos. In late 1976, the highest denomination was 5,000 pesos. In early 1979, the highest denomination was 10,000 pesos. By the end of 1981, the highest denomination was 1,000,000 pesos. In the 1983 currency reform, 1 Peso argentino was exchanged for 10,000 pesos. In the 1985 currency reform, 1 austral was exchanged for 1,000 pesos argentinos. In the 1992 currency reform, 1 new peso was exchanged for 10,000 australes. The overall impact of hyperinflation: 1 (1992) peso = 100,000,000,000 pre-1983 pesos.

Austria

Between 1921 and 1922, inflation in Austria reached 134%. With the highest banknote in denominations of 500,000 Austro-Hungarian krones.

Belarus

Belarus went through steady inflation from 1994 to 2002. In 1993, the highest denomination was 5,000 rublei. By 1999, it was 5,000,000 rublei. In the 2000 currency reform, the ruble was replaced by the new ruble at an exchange rate of 1 new ruble = 1,000 old rublei. The highest denomination in 2008 was 100,000 rublei, equal to 100,000,000 pre-2000 rublei.

Bolivia

Bolivia went through its worst inflation between 1984 and 1986. Before 1984, the highest denomination was 1,000 pesos bolivianos. By 1985, the highest denomination was 10 Million pesos bolivianos. In 1985, a Bolivian note for 1 million pesos was worth 55 cents in US dollars, one-thousandth of its exchange value of $5,000 less than three years previously.[12] In the 1987 currency reform, the Peso Boliviano was replaced by the Boliviano at a rate of 1,000,000 : 1.

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Bosnia-Hezegovina went through its worst inflation in 1993. In 1992, the highest denomination was 1,000 dinara. By 1993, the highest denomination was 100,000,000 dinara. In the Republika Srpska, the highest denomination was 10,000 dinara in 1992 and 10,000,000,000 dinara in 1993. 50,000,000,000 dinara notes were also printed in 1993 but never issued.

Brazil

From 1986 to 1994, the base currency unit was shifted three times to adjust for inflation in the final years of the Brazilian military dictatorship era. A 1967 cruzeiro was, in 1994, worth less than one trillionth of a US cent, after adjusting for multiple devaluations and note changes. A new currency called real was adopted in 1994, and hyperinflation was eventually brought under control. The real was also the currency in use until 1942; 1 (current) real is the equivalent of 2,750,000,000,000,000,000 of those old reals (called r�is in Portuguese).[13]

Bulgaria

During 1996 the Bulgarian economy collapsed due to the BSP�s, slow and mismanaged economic reforms, its disastrous agricultural policy, and an unstable and decentralized banking system, which led to an inflation rate of 311% and the collapse of the lev, with an exhange rate $1:Lev reaching 1:3000. When pro-reform forces came into power in the spring 1997, an ambitious economic reform package, including introduction of a currency board regime and pegging the Bulgarian Lev to the German Deutsche Mark (and consequently to the euro), was agreed to with the IMF and the World Bank, and the economy began to stabilize.

More�

So I hope YOU are PROTECTED! :36_3_12:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Sadly I wonder IF we might have a NEW US Currency. We did get two in the past when TPTB BLEW it on a way smaller scale than we did recently.

With the US Continental and the US Greenback.

Germany went through three currencies in 1923 to 192? ish.

The Reichmark printed to death like we are doing now; then the ROTTENMARK (sorry the Rettenmark) on land value; then the Deutschemark.

All the time GOLD held value from one to the next and they did this in a period of a few years too.

"History does not exactly repeat, but the DAMN thing sure does RHYME!" Mark Twain :36_3_12:


As far as intrinsic currency

gold & silver North American bullion coins
foreign gold and silver bullion coins
slabbed US gold and silver coins
silver BARS
gold BARS
slabbed Foreign gold and silver coins
and any other thing/way you can figure out
including smaller gold and silver coins

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Aren't these faked a LOT in China right now? Seems hardly a week goes by without another story on the fakes. They can even afford to use real gold, the numi premium is so high.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

If you think these are FAKES take a look in your wallet - if it has 20 $100 bills in it - it's a TIME BOMB about ready to make those worth ONE BUCK a piece next year. :thumb.aspx:

It's called HYPERINFLATION and it's a KILLER if you hold stocks, bonds, US dollars, Treasuries, or any other type US paper phoney dollar derivative. :36_1_25:

These JERKS in the FED have printed 20 times the amount of the starting point of only some 30 years ago. :4_1_72:

It's like a SLOW CHINESE WATER TORMENT TEST (a pun from your post); don't worry about a few frauds even a total NINCOMPOOP can see the difference. I hope your not worse than that! :36_3_12:


Best wishes,

So many that are professing themselves wise will be left foolish and flat worthless. HS Finance Bible - Book 1 verse 1.

:111::111::111::36_3_16:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Thats interesting but this time I doubt there will be a huge boom bust like there was in 1980. Its not going to happen that way and so there is no way to predict what is REALLY going to occur.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

I wonder if the US dollar will fall immediately 100% to one penny - like Germany 1923 and then IT REALLY got bad.

At the GERMAN bakery they had front door open for paper currency and told them they we all out.

HOWEVER, at the back door they took silver coins and small gold coins for whatever they had made that morning.

TRUE STORY - those with real money got the BREAD - those with paper BS got what they were INTRINSICALLY worth - ZERO ZIP NADA NOTHING!

Funny how that worked.

:111::111::111:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

This is why I buy those $5 and $10 dollar commemorative gold pieces, so I'll be able to make change for you guys.:spam4:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

I don't think we will see a senerio like Germany. The "club" will shift to a false "gold-backed" world currency before they let the USdollar fail.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

I kinda wonder if you are not too far from being right. The "club" loves the power. :wink::111:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Do you think any food producer in the US is going to be smart enough to realize the value of PMs in a hyperinflationary cycle? In post -WW1 Germany, plenty of people still remembered real money being used. The majority of the US only knows clad coins and FRNs and have zero experience with real money.

Sadly, I remember spending Franklin halves when I was a kid. Makes me sick these days!

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

http://www.apmex.com/Category/227/20...1907_1933.aspx

XF $20 Saints used to be only ~10% over spot. Now they're about 30% over spot.

Still, I wonder what they're premium will be when gold is $10,000/oz.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

XF's are pretty ugly, lol, but still gold. At those prices, it might pay to get ungraded ones slabbed.

I don't know if its worth the effort to try to trade the higher grade ones for lower grades. The spread on selling them and buying replacements would negate a lot of the gain, I'd think.

I do agree that reputably slabbed ones are worth more, if for no other reason, you can tell if they are real or not, or at least your odds would be real good.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Down the road everyone in every family has a person OLD enough to remember prior to 1965 when we had REAL silver coins; heck, I worked at the race tracks and in retail food from 1960 on.

Those HOPEFULLY are the things in your JUNK silver bags if you are wise right now.

Also those old enough to remember silver coins heard about gold coins - and when this thing hits - the media will mention the price of gold at really high prices.

The INTERNET (hopefully the sheeple can figure out what that is - but sometimes I wonder?) will be there for investigation - if you make an offer with one of your coins, right? :Surrender::signs14::thumb.aspx:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Are you guys sure that St. Gaudens make a good investment? I'm sure on the "numismatic" side of things that the highest graded and rarest dates will always increase in value but as for the rest of them I always thought St. Gaudens were as common as dirt. I always see a bunch of these coins at shows and only a few years ago you could pick them up close to spot.

I personally think the prices are gonna crash on a lot of the St. Gauden's after the hype dies down from the recently minted UHR.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

I'll give you 10% over spot for anything in SAINTS you can pick up.

MS65 were almost $3000 this month - soon the'll be 5 to 10 grand I'll bet ya.

:36_1_32v:

BIG THINGS are changing this AIN"T your grandfather's DEPRESSION - it'll rhyme more with Germany's HYPERIflationary period 1923 only with the world's reserve currency
starting off with 700 TRILLION in the red. Somehow I think the Bible rhymes in our current situation and the Revelation of Jesus Christ (LOOK at last book {end pages} in your coffee table Bible)
spells it out more than your local news stations - but that's just me a published and recognized lifetime historian - and Bible Prophecy Teacher - hold on to your hats and butts this is going to be a rollycoaster ride of a LIFETIME.

I do REALLY Hope you have 50 to 80% of you net in PMs. That is, of course, Unless you like a lot of extra tissue paper for the bathroom.

Sorry

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

You are onto something HS, I just checked my APMEX receipts from a year ago versus APMEX prices today. I bought some ungraded $20 liberties and low-grade St. Gaudens (MS 61 and 62). All are about 200 bucks more than what I paid :565:, despite the paper spot price being quite a bit higher last year when I bought (Graded MS 61 Saints are not available). They ain't making any more of them. :452:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

I wasn't into numismatics at that time but from what I read the '89 blowoff top in Saints and Libs was partially due to wall street getting involved heavily with the various "coin funds".

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Forget the last time this is the BIG KAHUNA comming! :signs14:

This AIN'T your grandpapys depression - it's a 10 times gorilla to that!

************************************************** *******
Posted: Apr 16 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: April 16, 2009 at 10:41 pm

Filed under: General Editorial

Dear Friends:

It is either April 19th to the 21st or in June, but it is coming.

Here is Alf on the numbers.

I recently completed the same mathematics that helped me so much in 1980 to determine the price that would be required to balance the international balance sheet of the U.S.

Balancing the international balance sheet is gold’s mission in times of crisis.

I recently did the math again and was sadly shocked to see what the price of gold would have to be to balance the international balance sheet of the USA today. That price for gold is more than twice Alf’s projected maximum gold price.

My compliments go to Alf for his work which has been spot on for a good deal of time.

All our tools are a crystal ball of sorts, a kind not having 100% input from the adopted discipline. Certainly Alf’s work involves more than simple technical analysis talent. It is quite rare for two Gann guys ever to see the same thing in an axiom of TA.. You might recall it was Alf who correctly called the uranium market.

None of us get it right all the time. For the speculator, you are only as good as your last call. I think Alf has it nailed. Bravo to him.

Respectfully yours,
Jim


Elliott Wave Gold Update 23
By Alf Field


As this is going to be the last of these Updates, it is appropriate to review the reasons for writing this series of articles on Elliott Wave and the gold price. This will involve revealing a lot of personal detail and also unveiling an extremely high forecast for future gold prices. The first article titled "Elliott Wave and the Gold Price" was published on 25 August, 2003. This article can be reviewed at the following site:…


In August 2003 the gold price was in the region of $350 and there were a number of conflicting views about the future direction of the gold price. Robert Prechter, for example, was predicting a move to below $253 and possibly below $200. For a number of reasons I was of the opinion that gold was in the very early stages of a major bull market. My views were thus the opposite of Prechter’s and I eventually plucked up the courage to say so.


I count Robert Prechter as a friend, so my purpose was not to disparage his views. I was more interested in setting up some parameters or guidelines that would help determine the likely outcome if the gold price exceeded those levels. I concluded that if the gold price dropped below $309, the odds would favour Prechter’s view. If it pushed above $382, then my bullish view would probably be favoured.


This was more than just an academic exercise because in 2002 I had made a major change to our family investments, moving some 40% of the capital into gold and silver bullion plus a selection of gold and silver mining shares. If Prechter’s view prevailed, our family finances would have taken a serious drubbing.


Another reason for publishing the Updates was to illustrate a major advantage of the EWP, which is the ability to prepare a template forecast (or "road map") of how the market is likely to unfold in both the long and short term, including the possible terminal prices. The original article produced a template based on the rhythms that had been observed in the early stages of the bull market, based naturally on the assumption that my bullish views would prevail.


The early stages of the bull market revealed corrections of 4%, 8% and 16% at increasing orders of wave magnitude. Those numbers were used in the original template published in that 2003 article, a template that forecast that the first major move upwards could reach $630 after which a correction of the order of 25% to 33% would probably follow. In fact, if the sequence had been extended logically, the larger correction should be double 16%, or 32%, but this was shaved to 25-33%.


I thought that the $630 forecast was conservative and that this number would probably have to be adjusted upwards later once the minor waves unfolded. In 2003, with gold in the mid $300’s, a forecast of $630 was both courageous and extremely daring. There was no purpose served in taking the exercise beyond that point until after the $630 target had been achieved.


In addition, the 2003 article concluded that if $382 was surpassed, then the gold price would move rapidly to $424 without a serious correction. That did indeed happen, with gold reaching $425 before the anticipated correction occurred. That success encouraged me to write an article updating the original forecast. I did not anticipate that the consequence of that first update would be the production of this Update 23 some five years later.


There was a further undisclosed reason for writing these articles and that was to eventually highlight the massive potential of the gold bull market. I was reluctant to reveal what I really believed in 2003 as it was so bullish that it would have invited the arrival of the guys with straight jackets and padded cells.


As this will be the last of these Updates, I will reveal my previously unpublished "back of the envelope" calculations in 2003. They were as follows:


Major ONE up from $256 to approximately $750 (a Fibonacci 3 times the $255 low);


Major TWO down from $750 to $500 (a serious decline of 33%);


Major THREE up from $500 to $2,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);


Major FOUR down from $2,500 to $2,000 (another serious decline);


Major FIVE up from $2,000 to $6,000 (also a 3 fold increase, same as ONE)


A case can be made for an 8 fold increase in Major FIVE, which would continue the Fibonacci sequence 3, 5, 8. You can do the maths if you like, but the fact is you can pick your own number for the gain in Major FIVE. Three times the low of $2,000 was actually the conservative expectation, producing a bull market peak target of $6,000.


I would not have invested 40% of the family capital into gold, silver and the corresponding mining shares based solely on my bullish EWP expectations. The following is a quote extracted from "Elliott Wave and the Gold Price" written in 2003 and referenced above:


"I am not a gung ho advocate of the EWP. I discovered not only its strengths but also its weaknesses. I prefer to have fundamentals, technicals and the EWP all in place (if possible) before committing myself to an investment."


As mentioned in this quotation, I prefer to have fundamental and technical analyses in line with the EWP before committing to a position. Obviously I was satisfied with the fundamental and technical out look for gold when I made the dramatic change in our investment portfolio in 2002.


The technical analysis included the following:


The 21 year bear market in precious metals had ended with the multi-decade down trend line being broken on the upside.


The precious metal markets were oversold with sentiment and emotional indicators sporting extreme negative readings with bullish connotations.


In the 1970’s bull market, gold increased from a low of $35 to a peak of $850, a massive 24.3 times the low price. If the current bull market was to be of the same order, then one could project an ultimate peak of over $6,221 ($256 x 24.3). This matched the $6,000 target determined under the EWP.


The fundamental analysis was the real clincher. I had become convinced that the world, and especially the USA, was heading for a major financial crisis that would be so powerful that it would overwhelm all other factors. It would become the single most important criteria impacting on investment decisions.


Privately I referred to this as the "Big Kahuna" crisis.


I anticipated that the Big Kahuna would give rise to the risk of a systemic meltdown, which would result in the authorities "throwing money at problems", bailing out all the banks and large corporations that got into trouble. This would lead to the destruction of the currency. I wrote about this in more detail in "Seven D’s of the developing Disaster" in April, 2005, an article that can be found at the following site:…


The consequence of the systemic meltdown would be a vast increase in newly created money which would result in a massive rise in the gold price of the order that I was anticipating. A further consequence would be the introduction of new national and international monetary systems. Several articles followed in the next few years, culminating in "Crisis Cogitations" which was published just 2 weeks ago at the following site:…


If you haven’t read "Crisis Cogitations", I would urge you to do so in order to better understand the current crisis. Obviously the current financial crisis is the Big Kahuna that I had been anticipating, although I didn’t expect it to take five years to emerge.


Reverting back to the situation in 2003, both the technical and fundamental underpinnings for gold seemed to be pretty solid. Consequently I felt confident that the bullish EWP forecasts, both the shorter term and the undisclosed longer term expectation, would work out. There was no purpose served in revealing the potential for the market to reach $6,000. To get there, gold had to get to the $630 target first, which was a sufficiently daring forecast in 2003.


The current situation:


The chart below depicts the Comex Gold price on a weekly basis. In February 2006, in Update IV, the $630 target was increased to $768 as a result of intervening market action. A couple of months later the gold price exceeded $630 and moved to $733 in May 2006. From that point a 23% correction to $563 occurred.


Confusion reigned because a relatively minor correction had been anticipated, to be followed by a rise to $768. Thereafter the long awaited 25% to 33% correction was scheduled to occur. Instead, the decline measured 23% and the obvious conclusion was that this was the long awaited 25% to 33% correction, albeit slightly stunted. Quite possibly I was overly influenced by my previously unpublished rough target of $750 followed by a decline to $500. The actual outcome of a peak of $733 and a correction to $563 was remarkably close to my rough estimate and seemed to adequately fit the requirement for the end of Major ONE and the corrective wave Major TWO. In coming to this conclusion I glossed over the fact that the correction to $563 was an obvious triangle, and triangles are almost always 4th waves, yet I was calling it a 2nd wave, Major TWO. I also glossed over the fact that the correction was below the 25% to 33% magnitude required.


I mentioned previously that the early corrections were 4%, 8% and 16% at increasing orders of magnitude. If one were to be pedantic, one would say that the next level of correction should be 32%. Looking at the chart below, the correction from $1015 to $699 is 31%! It sticks out like a sore thumb. Surely this is exactly the 32% correction that we should have been anticipating for Major TWO?


Assuming that the $699 low on 23 October 2008 turns out to be the actual low point of the correction, and that remains to be proven, then we can conclude that we have seen the low point for Major TWO. That will allow us to update my original "back of the envelope" template to much higher levels, as follows:

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);


Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);


Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);


Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);


Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)


Once again, you can pick your number for the gain in FIVE and multiply it by $2,500. The numbers become astronomical and can really only be possible in a runaway inflationary environment, something which many thinking people are suggesting has become a possibility as a result of the actions taken during the current crisis.


Concentrating on the $3,500 target for Major THREE, which is a five fold increase from the low point of about $700, there is a case advanced in "Crisis Cogitations" for a five fold increase in money and prices in order to arrive at a "Less Hard" economic landing. In the USA, total debt recently exceeded $50 trillion and this is unsustainable given an economy with a GDP of only $14 trillion. The suggestion is that the debt level will reduce through bankruptcies to say $35 trillion while the new money created to save the situation will push up the nominal GDP to $70 trillion. A $35 trillion debt level is manageable with a GDP of $70 trillion.


It requires a five fold increase in prices to achieve the above result. Gold has retained its purchasing power over the centuries and will no doubt continue to do so in the current environment. Consequently gold will almost certainly increase five fold (or more) if the level of prices in the USA increases five fold.


In "Crisis Cogitations" it is acknowledged that the current credit/debt deflation could get out of hand and result in a serious deflationary depression. There is debate as to how gold will react in a deflationary environment, but the fact is that in a serious depression bankruptcies will be rife and price levels will decline. This may result in cash and Government bonds performing better than gold, but this is not certain. Gold cannot go bankrupt and is thus an asset that people can hold with confidence in a deflationary depression. It is possible that demand for a "safe haven" investment may be large enough to cause the metal to perform better than cash or Government Bonds.


The odds, however, strongly favour an inflationary outcome. Given a strong will and the ability to create any amount of new money via the electronic money machine, it seems a foregone conclusion that runaway inflation will be the end result. If Mugabe could do it in Zimbabwe, there seems little doubt that Ben Bernanke and his associates in other countries will have no trouble in doing it too.


Why quit writing these reports? I have noticed from the emails that I receive that many people are using these reports to guide their trading activities in gold. I have had no objection to this in the past, but feel that it would be foolish to trade gold in the circumstances of the Big Kahuna crisis that we are living though at the moment. It has become a question of individual financial survival in an environment where things are happening more rapidly and with increasing violence. I feel very strongly that it is time to quietly hold onto one’s gold insurance and not attempt to trade it. I do not wish to provide interim levels that may cause people to be encouraged to trade their gold to skim a few extra fiat dollars or other currencies, but lose their gold as a result.


So it is Good Bye, Good Luck and God Bless.


Alf Field
25 November 2008
Comments to: ajfield@attglobal.net

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

For those asking if rare coins are a good investment do some re-search on the performance of bullion vs a basket of select rare coins over the last 20years. Might find that rare coins outperformed by something like over 400% as compared to boring bullion.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Yes, but for the past 20 years we had a functioning financial system.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Yes, but what will people be willing to pay for Saints when just ONE OUNCE of bullion is $10,000? At that point, gold is money once again. Premiums on different bullion coins will disappear just like there's no difference in the premiums on a $5 bill and a $20 bill -- both are money. When gold is $10,000, I doubt that the common Saints in good (and bad) condition could maintain the premiums they have today. The genuinely rare ones will always be coveted, however.

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

Don't forget MATT you'll be the NEW BANK OF AMERICA then! With a GOLD backing.

:111::111::111:

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

That's definitely true. If the banks were allowed to collapse, everyone with gold and silver would come out of the woodwork and form new banks and spontaneously reintroduce the gold standard -- it would be great!

Re: $20 gold COINS are the "Secret Currency" NOW...
 

don't be too smart now the FOOLISH love JUST one basket versus what the BIBLE says,"SEVEN BASKETS."

Her's a few: g=gold s=silver p=platinum

bullion G
bullion S

coins G
coins S
coins P

Slabs G
Slabs S
Slabs P

Foreign slabs G
Foreign slabs S
Foreign slabs P

stocks major G
stocks major S
stocks major P

rare coins g
rare coin s
rare coins p

:5_1_120::5_1_120::5_1_120: 17 baskets?

then there's the natural commodities too.

Like OIL and grains food meats eggs tea coffee chocolate - things you need to live LIKE WATER!